Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to energize a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.
The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates
Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts
However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
But, far from deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Echo from the Past
All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Memory
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise of him to remember the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
